MODLAN INTELLIGENCE RESOURCE · BRIEF
Attribution Confidence in Social Media Investigations
Why profile discovery is not identity proof, and why defensible investigations preserve uncertainty instead of converting it into a binary match.
Misattribution is a material investigative risk
Common names, copied photographs, reused handles, parody accounts, stale profiles, and incomplete public information can all create false certainty. A strong investigation treats identification as a hypothesis to test.
Use multiple non-biometric indicia
Publicly observable account history, stable handles, self-identifying content, named relationships, vehicles, employers, locations, events, and independently sourced records can collectively strengthen or weaken an attribution.
State the grade and the falsifiers
MODLAN uses confirmed, probable, possible, and unresolved as explicit confidence states. The report identifies the basis for the grade and what contrary fact or alternative subject could materially change it.
Keep attribution separate from claim conclusions
Even strong account attribution does not determine what a post means for coverage, liability, disability, compensability, or fraud. Those are separate professional and claim decisions requiring the full matter context.